## Metadata Authors: Sang Woo Park Year: 2022 URL: Code: ## Abstract *working paper with no abstract* ## Summary ## Comments ### Major ### Minor ## Detailed notes ### Introduction > Ri(t) characterizes transmission conditions at time and provides a real-time estimate of whether the disease will continue to spread if conditions were to stay the samer This is certainly true in many frameworks and handlings but isn't a property of the estimator itself? If the instantaneous reproduction number is modelled in a AR framework (or a generalised one such as a Gaussian process) or with parameterisation from outside data sources (such as Google mobility) as in the Brauner et al. work (and similar applications) then it can vary into the forecast horizon. I think you are getting at the fact it models infections at time t as being dependent on past infections so it is backwards looking/current and not forward looking. If so a bit of clarification might be useful. > the mathematical definitions ofR(t) derived44from standard compartmental models (e.g., basic reproduction multiplied by the proportion45susceptible) actually correspond to that ofRi(t) (Gostic et al., 2020) Might be useful to mention this is true of derivations from branching processes as well (i.e Bhatt et al. 2021). > few studies have adopted time-varying growth rate to monitor the spread of infections, but there is currently limited understanding of the relationship between R(t) and r(t). Ref below doesn't explore the interaction but does make use of grow rates and argue using both for situational awareness. Laura is very nice and doing more applied work using growth rates. Can connect if interested. https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2022.01.01.21268131v2 - Perhaps in the discussion of the growth rate reflect on the fact it has no mechanistic interpretation (which I think is the case). * Love the linkage to the SIR model and linkage of transmission rate changes to constant strength and recovery changes to constant speed. Excited to read more! ### Methods ### Renewal equation framework ### Results ### Discussion ## Tags #speed-strength #people/sang-woo-park #surveillance #quantifying-interventions #reproduction-number-estimation